William and Katherine Estes Award

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William and Katherine Estes Award

The Estes Award is given by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS). It honors basic research in cognitive or behavioral science that uses rigorous formal or empirical methods to help us understand issues related to the risk of nuclear war. The award was first given in 1990 and was previously known as the NAS Award for Behavioral Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War.

Recent awards have been sporadic: no award in 2019, 2020, 2022, or 2023; the 2021 recipient was Charles L. Glaser.

Past recipients (selected):
- 1990: Robert Axelrod — used game theory and computer simulations to study strategies for confrontation and cooperation.
- 1993: Thomas C. Schelling — helped shape thinking about military strategy and nuclear war.
- 1997: Alexander L. George — linked theory and history to deterrence and statecraft.
- 2000: Philip E. Tetlock — developed a measure of cognitive complexity predictive of foreign policy decisions and applied psychology to nuclear policy problems.
- 2003: Walter Enders and Todd Sandler — analyzed transnational terrorism using game theory and time-series analysis.
- 2006: Robert Jervis — showed how cognitive psychology and political context inform strategies to avoid nuclear war.
- 2009: Graham Allison — highlighted new ways of thinking about decision making in crises, including nuclear crises.
- 2012: Robert Powell — created game-theoretic models of conflict and nuclear deterrence.
- 2015: Scott D. Sagan — studied risks of nuclear possession and proliferation.
- 2018: Etel Solingen — provided a systematic analysis of how political economy, globalization, and domestic politics influence nuclear choices.
- 2021: Charles L. Glaser — recognized for work on the risks and policy implications of nuclear weapons.